Benchmarking a Soil Moisture Data Assimilation System for Agricultural Drought Monitoring

Despite considerable interest in the application of land surface data assimilation systems (LDAS) for agricultural drought applications, relatively little is known about the large-scale performance of such systems and, thus, the optimal methodological approach for implementing them. To address this need, this paper evaluates an LDAS for agricultural drought monitoring by benchmarking individual components of the system (i.e., a satellite soil moisture retrieval algorithm, a soil water balance model and a sequential data assimilation filter) against a series of linear models which perform the same function (i.e., have the same basic inputoutput structure) as the full system component. Benchmarking is based on the calculation of the lagged rank cross-correlation between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil moisture estimates acquired for various components of the system. Lagged soil moistureNDVI correlations obtained using individual LDAS components versus their linear analogs reveal the degree to which non-linearities andor complexities contained within each component actually contribute to the performance of the LDAS system as a whole. Here, a particular system based on surface soil moisture retrievals from the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), a two-layer Palmer soil water balance model and an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is benchmarked. Results suggest significant room for improvement in each component of the system

Microwave Implementation of the Two-Source Energy Balance Approach for Estimating Evapotranspiration

A newly developed microwave (MW) land surface temperature (LST) product is used to substitute thermal infrared (TIR) based LST in the two-source energy balance approach (TSEB) for estimating ET from space. This TSEB land surface scheme, the Atmosphere Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model framework, is an approach that minimizes sensitivity to absolute biases in input records of LST through the analysis of the rate of temperature change in the morning. This experiment is therefore an important test of the ability to retrieve diurnal temperature information from a constellation of satellites with microwave radiometers that together provide 6-8 observations of Ka-band brightness temperature per location per day. This represents the first ever attempt at a global implementation of ALEXI with MW-based LST and is intended as the first step towards providing all-weather capability to the ALEXI framework. The leveraging of all sky capability of MW sensors is the main motivation of this work, as TIR-based ALEXI is limited to clear sky conditions.The analysis is based on a 9-year long record of ALEXI ET generated with MW-LST as an input, which is compared to an existing implementation of the same framework with thermal infrared based LST. In this study, the MW-LST sampling is restricted to the same clear sky days as in the IR-based implementation to be able to analyse the impact of changing the LST dataset separately from the impact of sampling all-sky conditions. The results show that long-term bulk ET estimates agree with a spatial correlation of 92 for total ET in the EuropeAfrica domain and agreement in seasonal (3-month) totals of 83-97 depending on the time of year. Most importantly, the ALEXI-MW also matches ALEXI-IR very closely in terms of 3-month inter-annual anomalies, demonstrating its ability to capture the development and extent of drought conditions. The weekly ET output from the two parallel ALEXI implementations is further compared to a common ground measured reference provided by the FLUXNET consortium. Overall, they indicate a surprisingly close match in both performance metrics (correlation and RMSE) for all but the most challenging sites in terms of spatial heterogeneity and level of aridity. Moreover, merging MW- and IR-based ALEXI may provide estimates of ET with a reduced uncertainty, even during nominally clear sky days. It is concluded that a constellation of MW satellites can effectively be used to provide LST for estimating ET through TSEB, which is an important step towards all-sky satellite-based ET estimates

Robust estimates of soil moisture and latent heat flux coupling strength obtained from triple collocation

Land surface models (LSMs) are often applied to predict the one-way coupling strength between surface soil moisture (SM) and latent heat (LH) flux. However, the ability of LSMs to accurately represent such coupling has not been adequately established. Likewise, the estimation of SM/LH coupling strength using ground-based observational data is potentially compromised by the impact of independent SM and LH measurements errors. Here we apply a new statistical technique to acquire estimates of one-way SM/LH coupling strength which are nonbiased in the presence of random error using a triple collocation approach based on leveraging the simultaneous availability of independent SM and LH estimates acquired from (1) LSMs, (2) satellite remote sensing, and (3) ground-based observations. Results suggest that LSMs do not generally overestimate the strength of one-way surface SM/LH coupling

On the Use of a Water Balance to Evaluate Inter-annual Terrestrial ET Variability

Accurately measuring interannual variability in terrestrial evapotranspiration ET is a major challenge for efforts to detect trends in the terrestrial hydrologic cycle. Based on comparisons with annual values of terrestrial evapotranspiration derived from a terrestrial water balance analysis, past research has cast doubt on the ability of existing products to accurately capture variability. Using a variety of estimates, this analysis reexamines this conclusion and finds that estimates of variations obtained from a land surface model are more strongly correlated with independently acquired from thermal infrared remote sensing than derived from water balance considerations. This tendency is attributed to significant interannual variations in terrestrial water storage neglected by the water balance approach. Overall, results demonstrate the need to reassess perceptions concerning the skill of estimates derived from land surface models and show the value of accurate remotely sensed ET products for the validation of interannual ET

Assimilating Remote Sensing Observations of Leaf Area Index and Soil Moisture for Wheat Yield Estimates: An Observing System Simulation Experiment

Observing system simulation experiments were used to investigate ensemble Bayesian state updating data assimilation of observations of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture (theta) for the purpose of improving single-season wheat yield estimates with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CropSim-Ceres model. Assimilation was conducted in an energy-limited environment and a water-limited environment. Modeling uncertainty was prescribed to weather inputs, soil parameters and initial conditions, and cultivar parameters and through perturbations to model state transition equations. The ensemble Kalman filter and the sequential importance resampling filter were tested for the ability to attenuate effects of these types of uncertainty on yield estimates. LAI and theta observations were synthesized according to characteristics of existing remote sensing data, and effects of observation error were tested. Results indicate that the potential for assimilation to improve end-of-season yield estimates is low. Limitations are due to a lack of root zone soil moisture information, error in LAI observations, and a lack of correlation between leaf and grain growth

Assessment of the Impact of Spatial Heterogeneity on Microwave Satellite Soil Moisture Periodic Error

An accurate temporal and spatial characterization of errors is required for the efficient processing, evaluation, and assimilation of remotely-sensed surface soil moisture retrievals. However, empirical evidence exists that passive microwave soil moisture retrievals are prone to periodic artifacts which may complicate their application in data assimilation systems (which commonly treat observational errors as being temporally white). In this paper, the link between such temporally-periodic errors and spatial land surface heterogeneity is examined. Both the synthetic experiment and site-specified cases reveal that, when combined with strong spatial heterogeneity, temporal periodicity in satellite sampling patterns (associated with exact repeat intervals of the polar-orbiting satellites) can lead to spurious high frequency spectral peaks in soil moisture retrievals. In addition, the global distribution of the most prominent and consistent 8-day spectral peak in the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System soil moisture retrievals is revealed via a peak detection method. Three spatial heterogeneity indicators - based on microwave brightness temperature, land cover types, and long-term averaged vegetation index - are proposed to characterize the degree to which the variability of land surface is capable of inducing periodic error into satellite-based soil moisture retrievals. Regions demonstrating 8-day periodic errors are generally consistent with those exhibiting relatively higher heterogeneity indicators. This implies a causal relationship between spatial land surface heterogeneity and temporal periodic error in remotely-sensed surface soil moisture retrievals

Verification of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Analysis Using Rainfall Observations in Australia

Global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution soil moisture estimates are available with a mean latency of ~2.5 days from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product. These estimates are based on the assimilation of SMAP radiometer brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter. Routine monitoring of the L4_SM system's assimilation diagnostics revealed occasionally large observation-minus-forecast Tb differences across eastern central Australia that resulted in large analysis increments (or adjustments) of the model forecast soil moisture. Because this region lacks in situ soil moisture measurements, we developed an alternative approach to assess the veracity of the soil moisture analysis increments in the L4_SM system. Using regional gauge-based precipitation data, we demonstrate that the L4_SM soil moisture increments are correlated with errors in the L4_SM precipitation forcing, suggesting that the SMAP Tb observations contribute valuable information to the L4_SM soil moisture estimates

Global Assessment of the SMAP Level-4 Surface and Root-Zone Soil Moisture Product Using Assimilation Diagnostics

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture and related land surface variables from 31 March 2015 to present with ~2.5-day latency. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the Catchment land surface model. This study describes the spatially distributed L4_SM analysis and assesses the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) Tb residuals and the soil moisture and temperature analysis increments. Owing to the climatological rescaling of the Tb observations prior to assimilation, the analysis is essentially unbiased, with global mean values of ~0.37 K for the O-F Tb residuals and practically zero for the soil moisture and temperature increments. There are, however, modest regional (absolute) biases in the O-F residuals (under ~3 K), the soil moisture increments (under ~0.01 cu.m/cu.m), and the surface soil temperature increments (under ~1 K). Typical instantaneous values are ~6 K for O-F residuals, ~0.01 (~0.003) cu.m/cu.m for surface (root-zone) soil moisture increments, and ~0.6 K for surface soil temperature increments. The O-F diagnostics indicate that the actual errors in the system are overestimated in deserts and densely vegetated regions and underestimated in agricultural regions and transition zones between dry and wet climates. The O-F auto-correlations suggest that the SMAP observations are used efficiently in western North America, the Sahel, and Australia, but not in many forested regions and the high northern latitudes. A case study in Australia demonstrates that assimilating SMAP observations successfully corrects short-term errors in the L4_SM rainfall forcing